Happy gameday eve. 

We are just 24 hours away from Auburn football returning to the field, and the Tigers are set to open the Alex Golesh era against Baylor at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

There are plenty of questions surrounding both teams heading into Saturday. 

Auburn has a new head coach, a new quarterback and a new offensive system. Baylor has a new quarterback in former Florida standout DJ Lagway and a new defensive coordinator in Joe Klanderman. 

Despite all the uncertainty that comes with Week 1, I like Auburn in this matchup. 

Last year’s game matters — but only to a point 

It is impossible to talk about this matchup without looking back at last year’s meeting. 

Auburn opened the 2025 season at Baylor and came away with a 38-24 victory. The Tigers ran for 307 yards and four touchdowns, while Jackson Arnold accounted for 245 total yards and three touchdowns. 

Baylor’s offense was no slouch, either. Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns as the Bears put up 483 total yards. 

But I would take all that with a grain of salt. These are two very different teams. 

Auburn has a new head coach and a completely different offensive identity, while Baylor is replacing several key pieces and trying to build around a new quarterback. 

Last year’s game can provide some context, but it isn’t a blueprint for what will happen Saturday. 

Baylor’s defense is the biggest question 

One of the biggest reasons I like Auburn is what the Tigers could be able to do against Baylor’s defense. 

The Bears replaced defensive coordinator Matthew Powledge with Klanderman, who spent the previous six seasons as Kansas State’s defensive coordinator. He is entering his first season in charge of the Baylor defense. 

Klanderman has a strong track record and should eventually have Baylor’s defense headed in the right direction. But this is his first game. 

And he’s being thrown into the deep end against an Auburn offense that is built around a quarterback and several players who already know the system.  That familiarity could be important early in the season. 

Byrum Brown followed Golesh from South Florida to Auburn, along with several other former USF players. Brown is coming off a 2025 season in which he threw for 3,158 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. 

Golesh and Brown already know what they want the offense to look like. 

Baylor is trying to figure that out on defense. 

That’s a matchup I think favors Auburn. 

DJ Lagway gets a fresh start 

Of course, Baylor has a major weapon of its own. 

Lagway enters his first season in Waco with plenty to prove. 

The former five-star recruit spent his first two seasons at Florida, throwing for 4,179 yards and 28 touchdowns during his career with the Gators. He also rushed for 237 yards and a touchdown. 

As a freshman, Lagway showed why he was considered one of the country’s top quarterback prospects. He threw for 1,915 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2024 and helped Florida go 6-1 in his seven starts. 

Last season was more up and down.  Lagway threw for 2,264 yards and 14 touchdowns, but he also had 11 interceptions. 

There is no question about the physical talent.  The arm strength is there. The athleticism is there. The potential is there. 

Now he gets a fresh start at Baylor. 

I expect Lagway to eventually look more like the player people expected him to become going into the 2025 season. But Saturday will be his first game in a new offense, with a new group of teammates, against an Auburn defense led by DJ Durkin. 

That’s a lot to handle in Week 1. 

Why I’m taking Auburn 

This game feels like it could come down to which team handles the changes better. 

Auburn has plenty of new pieces, but the Tigers also have familiarity. 

Golesh knows Brown. Brown knows Golesh. Several of the players around him have already played in this offense. 

Meanwhile, Baylor is asking Lagway to lead a revamped offense while Klanderman tries to establish a new defensive identity on the other side of the ball. 

That doesn’t mean this will be easy for Auburn. 

It’s Week 1. College football is unpredictable, and Baylor has enough talent to make this uncomfortable. If Auburn doesn’t come into Atlanta with a chip on its shoulder, the Tigers could absolutely find themselves on the wrong side of an upset. 

I just don’t think that happens. 

I think Brown hits the ground running in his first start at Auburn, and I expect the Tigers to have success running the football and putting pressure on Baylor’s new-look defense. 

Lagway will make plays. He’s too talented not to. 

But I don’t think Baylor has enough around him yet to consistently keep up with Auburn. 

And while this game is technically being played at a neutral site, I expect Mercedes-Benz Stadium to feel much more like an Auburn home game than a Baylor one. 

The Tigers have more familiarity on offense, more continuity on defense and, in my opinion, fewer questions to answer on Saturday. 

My prediction: Auburn 34, Baylor 27. 

That gives Auburn the win — and the cover.